The S&P 500 is out of its negative channel. The Invesco QQQ is the same. Volumes remain low. New highs… were just new highs. We effectively had a sideways day.
Thursday is the worst-performing day for the markets in 2022. And I’m being very cautious. The lack of buying is still a problem. There isn’t a lot of trading volume right now despite the big gains that we saw on Tuesday. In fact, yesterday, volume was about half of the 30-day average for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Invesco Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ).
I met with a few fund managers in Baltimore on Tuesday/Wednesday, and I followed up with colleagues who are working up in Manhattan. They’re still selling. They’re using every short-term rally to dump stocks. Meanwhile, I’m watching executives at companies, and insider buying remains relatively low.
No one who matters wants to call this bottom. I’m not listening to Jim Cramer on CNBC. I’m listening to what CEOs and CFOs are doing with their money. And I hear… nothing.
A Bad Back
Tomorrow, after a five-month wait, I will finally receive an epidural in my Lumbar 4-5 region. I’ve waited five months. I repeat that – again – because it bears repeating.
For the last five months, I’ve been trading in the most complicated market of my lifetime while I feel electricity running from head-to-toe in my entire right side. I cannot wait for this shot because I’ll finally:
- Be able to sleep
- Enjoy couches again
- Improve my concentration
- Get really good at being a pretend dinosaur for my daughter.
Don’t Buy the Dip
Netflix’s earnings report was bad. They lost viewers. This is the AOL.com of streaming, and I would stay VERY clear as a long-term investor. That said, I can see a little bit of a bounce coming soon. A thirty-five percent loss… is a lot of “percent.”
I think that if they announce an ad-driven model, it will hurt them more than it helps. Content is cheap. Great content is inexpensive. Oscar-winning content is not worth the money.
The likely path for Netflix (NFLX) is to change the business model, buy competitors, and face higher costs of capital. I’m bearish. I think this stock could fall under $200 by the end of the year.
So, one last thing. Next week, I’m heading to Nassau, the Bahamas for the first annual Crypto Bahamas Conference. I’ll be there for three days covering the conference and interviewing a number of leading players in the crypto currency space.
I don’t talk about cryptocurrency very much. I am very intrigued by the De-Fi movement and the ongoing efforts to “sell” culture through NFTs and other digital assets. Best of all, I’ll probably get a chance to meet a few big names in finance, politics, and more.
Speakers will include Tom Brady, Bill Clinton, Tim Draper, Mike Novogratz, and Cathie Wood. I’m impressed by the lineup. But the person I want to meet out of the lineup is Michael Lewis, the author of The Big Short and Moneyball.