A Valuable Homebuilder Stock

homebuilder stock

You know I’ve been bearish for months. But a week after the Fed’s announcement – here I am SO enthusiastic about the state of the markets. I’m very happy that institutional capital is flooding INTO the market once again. I’m a short-term bull. It’s a reminder that we reserve the right to change our minds – with conviction and data to support it. And today, I will highlight a certain homebuilder stock with great value.

I’m bullish, and I’m taking REAL shots at upside until we get another negative momentum event. Even if we are in the middle of the eye of the storm – enjoy the sunshine for now. We might only get a few weeks of positive momentum this year. So let’s use it to our advantage!

Where to Start

Okay, so until I tell you to move back to cash, the clear strategy is to focus your attention on the stocks with insider buying. I’ve been in this business for ten years. I’m watching some “experts” recommend stocks right now, like Zoom Communications (ZM), and saying they are worth your time.

Simple question: Are their executives buying the stock? Why are people recommending stocks that are off 50%, 70%, 90%, but even the CFOs and CEOs aren’t buying the stock? If the people who run the companies aren’t buying their stocks… Why should you?

I’m not more knowledgeable about Zoom than their executives. So why in the world would I buy something that even they don’t want to purchase with their own money right now? It’s honestly… that simple. So, what are CEOs and CFOs buying? Glad you asked. 

I LOVE American Assets Trust (AAT) right now. And Landsea Homes (LSEA) is a dirt-cheap homebuilder stock that’s an acquisition target. This is a BIG upside. The stock is trading for 71 cents on the dollar…

Landsea Holdings has a 78% upside, according to analysts. We need to think about 110%, but I’m happy with even 20% this year. Use a limit order on the latter, and buy up to $9.00. Make it your first play on Monday.

Before I Turn 41…

Here’s a story about me that you didn’t need to know:

Back in July 1980, a woman called my father at the office. He was – at the time – the head of the sales team at McCormick (MKC). Yes, the “spice” company. Whether you know it or not, you have some of their products in your spice rack. 

So, my father’s secretary runs into the room with a phone. And I’m not talking about a cell phone. I’m talking about the plugged-into-the-wall variety. The handset resembled a barbell. The wire was trailing behind her. It was at least 100 feet long. He holds it to his ear…

Then the woman on the other end of the phone says to my father: “Dorsey! I don’t know what I’m going to do. I’ve just moved up to a 3.5 level in tennis. I’ve got my own business. I’M PREGNANT. I’M PREGNANT!

My father put the phone down – the receiver on the table. He looked around the room. No one on his sales team laughed or suggested that this was a prank call. Finally, realizing the severity of this message, this father of a then 15-year-old daughter and 11-year-old son picked up the phone… 

He chuckled to that pregnant voice: “Who is this?”

Now What

My mother immediately hung up the phone. By accounts that are only delivered by “fourth glasses” of wine… this was quite an event! Curse words were thrown… that one that starts with the sixth letter of the alphabet… I’ve only heard her say this once. I think she said this term about 20 times in that week.

But after 57 years of marriage, they’re still doing great. (I envy them). Still – it’s a reminder that sometimes the voices that we know can be unrecognizable.

Anyway, I’ll run you through four other stocks bouncing off incredible lows next week, one at a time. Until then, please send my poor mother a “thank you” card.

Garrett Baldwin
Garrett Baldwin
Garrett Baldwin joined Godesburg Financial Publishing as Chief U.S. Markets Analyst in early 2021. A Johns Hopkins-trained Economist, he’s worked with hedge funds, venture capital firms, angel investors, and economic advisors to the U.S. government. Baldwin specializes in market anomalies and alternative investments. He’s written extensively on momentum, value, insider buying, and other unique strategies that provide investors that elusive edge.
Garrett Baldwin
Garrett Baldwin
Garrett Baldwin joined Godesburg Financial Publishing as Chief U.S. Markets Analyst in early 2021. A Johns Hopkins-trained Economist, he’s worked with hedge funds, venture capital firms, angel investors, and economic advisors to the U.S. government. Baldwin specializes in market anomalies and alternative investments. He’s written extensively on momentum, value, insider buying, and other unique strategies that provide investors that elusive edge.

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